Dad's On Call=Poop in Tub

The above equation is part of a scientific parenting equation based in equal parts on probability, Murphy's Law, karma, truth, and universal properties.  If I was better at science and math, I would be able to construct the equation more precisely so as to include those factors as well as the fact that it is the eve of the last day of classes and I'm fried.  But as with most things, it is perhaps best to approach it as a Bad News/ Good News scenario:

BAD NEWS: Dad's On Call=Poop in Tub
GOOD NEWS: The Guilty Party was the most likely of suspects.
BAD NEWS: A Non-Guilty Party was also in the tub.
GOOD NEWS: I was not in the tub at the time.
BAD NEWS: I was the only one around to be entrusted to clean it up.
GOOD NEWS: In spite of Elsie's suspicions based on empirical evidence, the pug was not involved.
BAD NEWS: The pug was not to be entrusted to clean it up.
GOOD NEWS: I did not have to shower myself in an alternate location after barely surviving the travails of toddler bath #1.
BAD NEWS: I did have to shower two toddlers a second time in an alternate location after barely surviving the travails of toddler bath #1.
GOOD NEWS: There is alcohol in the fridge.
BAD NEWS: There was some serious gagging and sterilizing involved non-drinking alcohol to earn said drinking alcohol.
GOOD NEWS: There are no accompanying pictures with this post.